recession end in sight?

The modest pullback in stock prices that followed the springtime rally, along with a worse-than-expected June jobs report, allowed the skeptics to re-emerge, asserting that without actual improvement in hard economic data, the “green shoots” had wilted away. What they do not realize, as we reasserted in ECRI’s June U.S. Cyclical Outlook report to Professional Members, “is that the cyclical improvement in the economy is proceeding in a textbook sequence, from long leading indicators to short leading indicators to coincident indicators.” In fact, “there are now pronounced, pervasive and persistent upturns in a succession of leading indexes of economic revival.”