why diplomacy won't stop israel's attack on lebanon
if you're not fully up to speed on the reason for the assault, here it is.
israeli intelligence, both on the ground and in the sky, watched hezbollah's buildup of rockets and missiles, made estimates, and looked for an opportunity to destroy them.
the cross-border raid that killed and captured soldiers gave israel a pretext it didn't think it could afford to pass up.
the rocket attacks provided proof that the intelligence was correct and the rockets are a threat.
since israel's evidence is far better than what the US used to invade iraq, the US can't condemn israel's actions and is forced to veto any UN attempt to do so, because censure of israel would implicitly censure the US.
most likely the attack won't end till israel thinks it has destroyed as many rockets as it can.
if, at that point, israel simply breaks off the assault and says the war is over, it will repeat the errors made by unilaterally pulling out of lebanon in 2000 and gaza last year.
instead, the end of hostilities should be negotiated with the lebanese government, who should enforce disarmament in the south in exchange for peace.
if israel had negotiated such guarantees 6 years ago, the present crisis might've been avoided. if they'd negotiated with the palestinian authority before leaving gaza, the hamas election win might never have happened.
(also, the US should negotiate an exit from iraq.)
1 day ago
Makes sense if you ignore that Hamas and Hezbollah have sworn to destroy Israel and not to settle for less. Countries that have made treaties pledging to allow Israel to exist have had peace. H&H will keep up the attacks and have sworn to keep up the attacks no matter what - where is the basis for negotiation?
ReplyDeleteHow is Lebanon going to enforce disarmament when they are held hostage by Hezbollah and the fear of Syrian intervention if they try?
cap, ur 2nd sentence (Countries that have made treaties pledging to allow Israel to exist have had peace.) is the key.
ReplyDeletesure, h&h will keep fighting. i'm not saying negotiate with them. israel can empower govts by negotiating withdrawals, because it makes the negotiators look like they've succeeded. folk respect that.
it's not a panacea, but every little bit helps.
getting a pledge to enforce disarmament is only a starting point. lebanon would need help to carry it off. they need to make a sincere attempt.
I believe there was a UN mandate that
ReplyDeleteHizbullah be disarmed, but Lebanon didn't have the will. So far the only one that's attampted it is Israel and at this point I believe they simply played into the hands of the jihadists.
u're probably right about the mand8. did anybody offer help? it's obvious lebanon can't do it alone.
ReplyDeletethe question's been asked on NPR, who fell in2 whose trap?
i think both israel n jihadists often play in2 each others' hands.